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moncler jackets canada One of the tricks our mind plays is to highlight evidence which confirms what we already believe. If we hear gossip about a rival we tend to think “I knew he was a nasty piece of work”; if we hear the same about our best friend we’re more likely to say “that’s just a rumour”. If you don’t trust the government then a change of policy is evidence of their weakness; if you do trust them the same change of policy can be evidence of their inherent reasonableness. moncler jackets canada

moncler coats Once you learn about this mental habit called confirmation bias you start seeing it everywhere. moncler coats

Official Moncler Outlet This matters when we want to make better decisions. Confirmation bias is OK as long as we’re right, but all moncler sale outlet too often we wrong, and we only pay attention to the deciding evidence when it too late. Official Moncler Outlet

moncler jacket online How we should to protect our decisions from confirmation moncler outlet online bias depends on why, psychologically, confirmation bias happens. There are, broadly, two possible accounts and a classic experiment from researchers at Princeton University pits best moncler jackets the two against each other, revealing in the process a method for overcoming bias. moncler jacket online

moncler jacket outlet One possibility is that we simply have a moncler sale online blindspot in our imagination for the ways the world could be different moncler jacket outlet

discount moncler jackets The first theory of confirmation bias is the most common. It’s the one you can detect in expressions like “You just believe what you want to believe”, or “He would say that, wouldn’t he?” or when the someone is https://www.cheapmoncler.com accused of seeing things a particular way because of who they are, what their job is or which friends they have. Let’s call this the motivational theory of confirmation bias. It has a moncler outlet sale clear prescription for correcting the bias: change people’s motivations and they’ll stop being biased. discount moncler jackets

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moncler outlet usa The alternative theory of confirmation bias is more subtle. The bias doesn’t exist because we only believe what we want moncler outlet prices to believe, but cheap moncler instead because we fail to ask the correct questions about new information and our moncler uk outlet own beliefs. This moncler outlet is a less neat moncler sale theory, because there could be one hundred reasons why we reason incorrectly everything from limitations of memory to inherent faults of logic. One possibility is that we simply have a blindspot in our imagination for the ways the world could be different from how we first assume it is. Under this account the way to correct confirmation bias is to give people a strategy to adjust their thinking. We assume people are already uk moncler outlet motivated to find out the truth, they just need a better method. Let’s call this the cognition theory of confirmation bias. moncler outlet usa

moncler jackets on sale Confirmatory evidence strengthened people’s views, as you’d expect, but so did disconfirmatory evidence moncler jackets on sale

cheap moncler Thirty years ago, Charles Lord and colleagues published a classic experiment which pitted these two methods against each other. used a cheap moncler jackets mens persuasion experiment which previously had shown a kind of confirmation bias they called ‘biased assimilation’. Here, participants were recruited who had strong pro or anti death penalty views and were presented with evidence that seemed to support the continuation or uk moncler sale abolition of the death penalty. Obviously, depending on what you already believe, this evidence is either confirmatory or disconfirmatory. Their original finding showed that the nature of the evidence didn’t matter as much as what people started out believing. Confirmatory evidence strengthened people’s views, as you’d expect, but so did disconfirmatory evidence. That’s right, anti death penalty moncler outlet woodbury people became more anti death penalty moncler outlet store when shown pro death penalty evidence (and vice versa). A clear example of biased reasoning. cheap moncler

moncler jackets kids For their follow up study, Lord and colleagues re ran the biased assimilation experiment, but testing two types of instructions for assimilating evidence about the effectiveness of the death penalty as a deterrent for murder. The motivational instructions told participants to be “as objective and unbiased as possible”, to consider themselves “as a judge or juror asked to weigh all of the evidence in a fair and impartial cheap moncler jackets womens manner”. The alternative, cognition focused, instructions were silent on the desired outcome of the participants consideration, instead focusing only on the strategy to employ: “Ask yourself at each step whether you would have made the same high or low evaluations had exactly the same study produced results on the other side of the issue.” So, for example, if presented with a piece of research that suggested the death penalty lowered murder rates, the participants were asked to analyse the study’s methodology and imagine the results pointed the opposite way. moncler jackets kids

moncler jackets cheap They called this the “consider the opposite” strategy, and the results were striking. Instructed to be fair and impartial, participants discount moncler jackets showed the exact same biases when weighing the evidence as in the original experiment. Pro death penalty participants thought the evidence supported the death penalty. Anti death penalty participants thought it cheap moncler jackets supported abolition. Wanting to make unbiased decisions wasn’t enough. The “consider the opposite” participants, on the other hand, completely overcame the biased assimilation effect they weren’t driven to rate the studies which agreed with their preconceptions cheap moncler sale as better than the ones that disagreed, and didn’t become more moncler online store extreme in their views regardless of which evidence they read. moncler jackets cheap

moncler coats for women The finding is good news for our faith in human nature. It isn’t that we don’t want to discover the truth, at least in the microcosm of moncler womens jackets reasoning tested in the experiment. cheap moncler coats mens All people needed was a strategy which helped them overcome the natural human short sightedness to alternatives. moncler coats for women

cheap moncler jackets outlet The moral for making better decisions is clear: wanting to be fair and objective alone isn’t enough. What’s needed are practical methods for correcting our limited reasoning and a major limitation is our imagination for how else things might be. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking cheap moncler jackets outlet.